2018 NFL picks, Week 10: Bet on the Titans against the Patriots, really

If you’re like most gamblers, you bet with the public. Congrats on your Sunday! Teams with more than 50 percent of the tickets on them went 11-0. That streak was broken Monday night when the Titans covered. As we head into this weekend, I’m hoping for a reversal in that trend.

Y’all know I love a good home dog.

Now, you can’t just blindly bet home dogs, but there’s huge value in a game like this. The Titans are 4-4. They could be 5-3 if they converted that two-point conversion in London.

They have those four wins mostly because of their defense, one of the better units in the NFL. They are first in points allowed and first in the red zone. They play a great brand of bend but don’t break. On the offensive side, we are finally getting a healthy Marcus Mariota, and it’s showing on the field, especially on the road against the Cowboys last Monday night.

Lastly, and most importantly, on the gambling side, is that the Titans play close games. The margin of victory for either side in their games has been within seven points in all but two of them. The margin’s been three points or less in four games. So, I think they muddy up this game and cover the line. You might also get this line back at 7 or 7.5 near kickoff.

Washington at Tampa Bay Bucs -3

Here’s the deal … When you’re down three starting offensive linemen and a fourth is beat up, and you’re going on the road, I’m taking the other side. Tampa Bay isn’t that good but man, Washington is so beat up right now. I get the Bucs as a short home favorite, and they can score points in general. I’ll take them

I don’t get this line. Honestly, I don’t. Are you telling me on a neutral field this game would be a pick em? The 49ers have the better OL, DL, coaching staff and right now. They probably have the better quarterback too. I guess people are thinking the Giants will come out of their bye with some fire, but man, I don’t see it. I think the 49ers run away with this game.

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